The important battles at both ends of the Bundesliga standings will be determined in the final two months of the 2024-25 season.
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All eyes may be on the top of the Bundesliga standings, as Bayern Munich bid to regain their crown from Bayer Leverkusen, while the race for Champions League qualification is also gathering pace.
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However, the crucial battle to stay in the competition could be one of the most interesting narratives to follow.
Holstein Kiel appear to have given themselves too much to do in the remaining seven rounds of matches, but the places in the remaining automatic drop zone and playoff spot remain yet to be decided.
St. Pauli hold the cards
While the pressure will be intense at the bottom of the standings, St. Pauli find themselves in the healthy position of sitting just outside of the bottom three places at this late stage of the season.
The German club hold a three-point advantage over Heidenheim, who occupy the playoff spot, while they are five points clear of Bochum, who are in the second automatic relegation position.
On paper, St. Pauli could pull clear of the relegation places over the next two rounds of matches, as they face Borussia Mönchengladbach at home, before travelling to rock-bottom Holstein Kiel.
A tricky run of matches follows that game on the road, with showdowns against title-chasing Bayern Leverkusen, and clashes with Werder Bremen and Stuttgart.
Who’s playing who?
The way that the fixtures have fallen this season will ensure that the battle to remain in the Bundesliga could go down to the wire. Heidenheim will face a daunting triple-header against Leverkusen, Frankfurt, and Bayern Munich, before rounding off April at Stuttgart.
However, there will be confidence surrounding the camp if they are still within touching distance after this period, with winnable matches in their final three rounds against Bochum, Heidenheim, and Werder Bremen.
It could be argued that Bochum have the easiest run-in of the teams at the bottom of the standings, with their only match against a team currently in the top six coming at home against Mainz in the penultimate round. Bochum also face out-of-form sides such as Stuttgart and Werder Bremen, as well as season-defining clashes with Heidenheim and St. Pauli in the final month of the season.
Holstein Kiel already have a mountain to climb to avoid automatic relegation, as they are five points adrift of the playoff position, and eight away from safety. Unlike their rivals, it is hard to foresee where their wins are going to come from in the final two months of the season.
After a relegation showdown with St. Pauli, Kiel travel to Leipzig, before hosting Gladbach and coming up against in-form Augsburg. They also end the season against potentially European-charging Borussia Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park.
Potential final dayshowdown
With how close the battle is at the bottom of the standings, a final day shootout is hard to rule out at this stage of the campaign. St. Pauli could hold the major advantage if that is to happen, as they will host Bochum, while Heidenheim will come up against Werder Bremen.
Bremen should be safe by that point, but a late charge for a European place could yet be their target in the final two months of the season. Being outside of the relegation places going into the final day, and a showdown with Bochum will ensure that St. Pauli would be confident of survival.
However, they did suffer a 1-0 defeat in the reverse meeting between the sides in January. That defeat means that St. Pauli are now winless in their last six against their German rivals.
But, with the stakes being so high, it would be challenging to bet against St. Pauli producing their very best level of performance in front of their home fans.
Could Hoffenheim get dragged into the battle?
If St. Pauli and Heidenheim are able to put together a run of wins before the start of May, then there could be increased pressure on Hoffenheim in the final month of the season. Hoffenheim have found wins hard to come by throughout this season, with only the bottom two teams claiming fewer victories.
However, they have been more difficult to beat than the four teams below them after playing out nine draws. But, the German club will still have one eye on what’s going on behind them, as they face one of the most challenging run-ins on the calendar.
Hoffenheim will come up against four of the top six teams in Germany, while they will also play host to Borussia Dortmund at the end of April. If it goes to the final day, they could be extremely concerned about results elsewhere, as Hoffenheim will play host to title-chasing Bayern Munich.
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